NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday 11/15/23

  • November 16, 2023

Player equipment can be useful in a variety of ways — from leverage to measuring a player’s ability to produce daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we will focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including NumberFire’s daily basketball predictions, here are some NBA player prop bets that look attractive with NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines may change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Franz Wagner Over 1.5 Made Threes (-142) / Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-111)

The Orlando Magic will visit the Chicago Bulls in what is expected to be a competitive game (1.0 point spread), and I think Franz Wagner is ready for a strong all-around performance against a Bulls team that sacrifices stats.

To begin, we will point Wagner to at least two to three waters. He averages 1.9 three-pointers (3PM) per game, and shoots from behind the arc at a high rate, taking 5.8 three-point attempts (3PA) per game. On top of that, we should start to see some decline in his shooting percentage numbers (36.1% three-point percentage last year; 32.8% 3P% this year).

He has made two or more three balls in seven of 10 games this year, so the prop’s stated chances (58.7%) are lower than his current strike rate (70.0%).

No team in the league offers more 3PA than the Bulls. They allow opponents to shoot a career-high 40.7 shots per game from downtown.

Forwards like Wagner are left out of the fun — the Bulls are allowing the second-most 3PA and 3PM going forward in 36 minutes. Also, Wagner is averaging 2.4 3PM on the road compared to 1.4 3PM at home, so he should be in a good place tonight in Chicago.

The odds of Wagner making a three prop aren’t very exciting, so I’d look to compare him to record rebounds and assists (RA) plus nine.

Wagner averages a 9.4 RA and has struck out the batter in seven of 10 games this season. He has seen a slight increase in these numbers since Wendell Carter Jr. down with an injury, he averaged a 9.6 RA and struck out in four of five games during that stretch.

While this game’s slate-low 216.0 game total is a little intimidating, the rebounds should do more of the heavy lifting with this prop, and Chicago is allowing opponents to crowd the stat sheet.

The Bulls are giving up second in rebounds and third in assists in the league. Going forward per 36 minutes, they allowed the fourth-most rebounds and the second-most assists. Wagner is playing 33.8 minutes per game and minutes limits based on blowouts should not exist in a game like this.

If you are interested in both these services, it is good to know that there seems to be a good correlation between the two. In the seven games in which Wagner made two or more triples, he averaged 9.7 RA.

De’Aaron Fox Over 26.5 Points (-115)

After missing two weeks with an ankle injury, De’Aaron Fox returned to the court against the Sacramento Kings on Monday and scored 28 points.

Fox had a rough season to open the season, scoring just 18 points on 33.3% field goal percentage and 14.3% 3P%. In the three games since, he’s put up 39, 37, and the aforementioned 28 points, bringing his first season average to 30.5 points.

The rising star and potential MVP candidate could find himself having consistent games of 30 or more points this season, so I’d bet on his points being where he is, especially with tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers are giving up 10-plus points to the guard in 36 minutes. They allow the eighth most 3PA to opponents, with Fox scoring 27.0% of his points. Through four games, Fox is averaging 7.5 3PA, and when paired with the Lakers’ tendency to allow this shot at the seventh-highest percentage in the league, we can see Fox’s points slightly behind the arc.

Los Angeles is allowing more second chance points to guards per 36 minutes than any other team in the league. They also gave up the ninth-most points in the paint (PITP) to guards per 36 minutes, and Fox made 47.5% of his PITP. In addition, he was drawing six fouls per game (seventh most in the NBA), so we saw a few drives in the paint turn into trips to the foul line.

LA’s defensive shortcomings allowed Fox to score 37 points against the Lakers earlier this season, and even though the game went into overtime, he scored all of his points in regulation.

He also averaged 29.8 points in four games against the Lakers last season, so all signs point to another scoring superstar.

Rudy Gobert to Record Double-Double (-105)

Rudy Gobert has recorded double-doubles in eight of 10 games this season (and missed one double-double by one point), so the implied 51.22% chance here is ridiculous.

Gobert is averaging 11.9 points and 12.8 rebounds per game. He grabbed double-digit boards in every game this season.

His competition, the Phoenix Suns, doesn’t give up all the rebounds. But tonight we’ll see the first game of the Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal team, which likely means the Suns’ status as the fifth-most shots per game team probably won’t last long. Look for Phoenix to improve its pace tonight, which could allow Gobert to continue his streak of double-digit rebounds.

As you might guess, Gobert scored 70.6% in the paint. The Suns allow the sixth-most PITP per game, including the sixth-most in 36 minutes to center.

The rest of Gobert’s points came from the free throw line (29.4%). While he’s not a bad shooter (63.8% FT% in his career), a chance never hurts, especially when we only need 10 points. Phoenix allows centers to draw seven fouls in 36 minutes, and we can see the Suns’ new rotation grow very slowly with the start of their new five.

The spread is close (6.0 points), Gobert’s matchup is good, and history shows he’s a double-double machine this year.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Go to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all the NBA betting options.

Subscribe to FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not eligible to compete in social fantasy daily tournaments or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the writer’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.