European Football Predictions | Picks for Stuttgart vs Dortmund, Lazio vs Roma & More

It’s the last weekend in Europe before the November international break, where more European Championship spots will be up for grabs ahead of next summer in Germany. Chelsea vs Manchester City is the headline game in England, but there is plenty of action across the continent in the other top five leagues, including. Stuttgart vs Dortmund and more.

Between the Rome derby, Germany’s top four clash and Jude Bellingham’s possible return to Real Madrid, here’s mine. European football predictions with non-EPL games this weekend.

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European Football Predictions

The market has heavily discounted Stuttgart after losing striker Serhou Guirassy to a hamstring injury. His absence in the last two games has been accompanied by two consecutive losses on the score sheet, but basic metrics suggest that Stuttgart’s attacking output has not been affected at all. Stuttgart lost to Hoffenheim and Heidenheim in consecutive games, but created 3.6 and 2.6 xG in the two losses.

There is wind in Stuttgart’s figures at the beginning of the season because they have not played Leverkusen, Bayern or Dortmund in the calendar. But when you compare them to Borussia Dortmund, it’s hard to tell the two sides apart.

Dortmund have major shortcomings in defensive transition and defense in general. They allowed at least 1 xG to every talented unit they played and allowed 1.5+ to Milan, PSG, Bayern, Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt. Despite a relatively easy schedule, Dortmund ranks seventh in Germany in non-penalty xG allowed. Stuttgart doesn’t have much depth to overcome the loss of Guirassy, ​​but they make up for it by getting shots from everywhere.

That’s why I’m so encouraged that their performance in the first season is sustainable. This is not one or two players playing above their level, but the whole unit moving forward together. If you think back to last season, Stuttgart had above average numbers below and above their place in the relegation picture in Germany.

I make Stuttgart the favorite here and I would bet they can bet at -130 or better.

Pick: Stuttgart PK (-130 or better)

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Real Madrid got the upper hand on the scoreboard against Braga in the Champions League on Wednesday, but defense continues to be a major problem for the team. Real conceded 1.6 xG, including 0.9 non-penalty xGA at home against average Portuguese sides. It continues Madrid’s habit of conceding more goals and chances than you would expect given a team of their caliber. The attack should be boosted by Jude Bellingham’s return to the starting XI, and Carlo Ancelotti has given him a ton of freedom going forward.

His goalscoring will not continue at the rate it was going, but his goals have helped keep the attack above average in Spain. There are real defensive setbacks yet to come for Real Madrid. You’d expect them to overdo their defensive xGA with Thibaut Courtois in goal, but with him out and the average goalkeeper, they won’t continue to allow eight goals for every 12.8 xGA.

Real ranks seventh in shots allowed in Spain, fifth in NPxG with 90 allowed and does not stop the ball’s progress or crosses. Valencia have struggled for goals and chances this season, but their defense and fundamentals are there to keep them in the game.

Real Madrid contribute 1.5 xG to every attacking talent they face. Valencia’s team total is very low despite their offensive struggles – Valencia are 15th in xGF but 11th in pitching.

Pick: Valencia Team Overall Over 0.5 (-125)

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Roma’s defensive numbers have regressed overall this season and that has lowered their final ceiling. Especially when you combine that drop with poor goalkeeping and a shot from Rui Patricio, José Mourinho’s goalkeeping is probably not that good and I’ve been very reluctant to back them because of it.

This is technically a Roma road game at the Stadio Olimpico for the Rome derby with Lazio. Although I have nothing against Roma, they are a class above their city rivals Lazio. Lazio is average in all categories in Serie A. They are ranked 11th in xGF and 13th in attacking shots. Defensively, they ranked eighth and 10th in scoring.

Now that the luck of their finishing split has ended at both ends this season, the results have shown what they really are. Lazio is also in their CL group. Roma are ranked sixth in defense and fourth in attack and the week-to-week consistency is not strong. If I don’t use home field advantage, I have Roma as a +115 money line favorite in neutral. I’d bet the Romans bet at 135 or better.

Pick: Romans – Don’t Draw Bet (-135 or better)

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