Bayern Munich vs Galatasaray Odds
Bayern Munich have won all three of their Champions League games so far and are top of Group A as the second half of the double round robin begins on Wednesday. The basic numbers of the German team are very small, and their opponents created more chances than them.
Despite nine goals and a +4 goal difference, Bayern’s expected negative goal difference raises the bar on whether they should be such huge favorites when Galatasaray travel to Munich on Wednesday.
Bayern won the reverse fixture 3-1 in Turkey, but the statistics of that game tell a very different story. Galatasaray outscored Bayern 16-3 in the first half of the match and created 2.7 xG in total. Galatasaray came out strong and the game opened up quickly. You’d expect that to favor Bayern due to their superior attacking talent, but the German side struggled to find clear-cut shots and chances. Bayern are at their best when Harry Kane is able to pass and help build up, then raise the quick players at the back.
Galatasaray did a great job of limiting Kane in the first leg, but can they do it again in Germany? Here is mine Bayern Munich vs Galatasaray Prediction.
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Bayern can book their place in the knockout stages of the Champions League with a win and could clinch the club title with a win and a draw against Manchester United in Copenhagen on Wednesday. The German side are expected to have Leon Goretzka and Dayot Upamecano available to start, based on comments made by Thomas Tuchel. They may have the longest unbeaten run in Champions League group stage history at 37 games, but this has not been a typical CL campaign for Bayern.
Last season, Bayern dominated the group of death, beating Inter and Barcelona comfortably. This season, despite a weak team, many cracks have appeared. Bayern scored nine goals at 4.9 xGA, masking the fact that the attacking profile was not at all surprising. Bayern closed on two-goal favorites in Copenhagen in the second game week and finished the game with 0.9 xG and only 31 box touches (Copenhagen had 19). Then they closed as 225 money favorites in Turkey two weeks ago and the last touch of the penalty area was 25-23 in favor of Bayern.
When you look at how much Bayern have dominated the Bundesliga this year (+2.31 xG difference per 90 minutes), it makes you wonder why that hasn’t translated to Europe. All German teams have been inconsistent in Europe this year except for Bayer Leverkusen. Borussia Dortmund were eliminated by PSG and Milan, RB Leipzig had no competition at home against Manchester City,. Freiburg, Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin were the lowest in other competitions. Maybe the quality of the Bundesliga is really low right now and that creates a false pretense of how good Bayern are.
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Galatasaray have lost first-choice goalkeeper Fernando Muslera to injury, meaning backup goalkeeper Gunay Guvenc will make his Champions League debut on Wednesday. Otherwise, Galatasaray is as healthy as it has been all season. Mauro Icardi was not fit enough to start the reverse fixture, but he is now in good form going into the game. The Turkish team has won 10 consecutive games at home and has an extra day off to recover and travel from Friday’s home game.
One problem with the old Galatasaray teams is that they had a lot of players past their primes who couldn’t make the cut at the CL level. This version of the team is not that old, and it made a big difference in their results in Europe. They managed to go toe to toe with Manchester United and Bayern and not get frustrated in the sport. Willfried Zaha, Icardi and Hakim Ziyech is an excellent front three full of shots, passing range and ball handling skills.
The midfielder has forced the runners-up to climb to the top of the group stage so far. If they had finished better before the games against Copenhagen and Bayern, they might have been the ones sitting at the top of Group A right now.
Bayern Munich vs Galatasaray
Through three games, Galatasaray has a clear xG difference in this group. Galatasaray did a solid job of breaking Bayern’s formation in midfield and forced all attacks to come from wide areas in the first meeting.
There are questions about whether Galatasaray can sustain that level of pressure for the full 90 minutes, as they seemed to tire at the end of the 15th. But since Galatasaray managed to outplay the second best team in Europe – in terms of the market – for an hour, it suggests to me that they should not be completely under two goals in this game.
I would bet them +2 and sprinkle +700 on the money line for the first half as well.
Selection: Galatasaray +2 (-110) and Galatasaray First Half ML (+700)
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